Trottier Energy Futures Project: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Canadian Oil and Gas Sector
In developing low carbon scenarios for Canada, it is important to understand the role of the oil and gas sector as a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. As outlined in the first Trottier Energy Futures Project report on low carbon scenarios, Canada is the only country of the eight reviewed that is a net fossil fuel producer. The Trottier Energy Futures Project chose the CanESS (Canadian Energy Systems Simulator) model to provide estimates of current and future energy use and GHG emissions. The TEFP management board asked this report’s authors to review the way the CanESS model deals with emissions from the Canadian oil and gas production sectors to ensure that model predictions are consistent with actual production data. To do so, this report compares results from the model predictions with emissions data reported by Statistics Canada and other government agencies where such data are available. Particular care has been taken to examine the emissions from the production of synthetic crude oil and diluted bitumen (“dilbit”) from the Alberta oil sands.
This report is divided into two main sections examining GHG emissions from oil and gas production in Canada. The first section describes historical levels of GHG emissions from oil and gas production that have been used to “calibrate” the CanESS model. The second section discusses emission levels projected by the CanESS model to mid-century using production levels assumed in the TEFP “reference scenario”. Unless otherwise stated, all data used in this report have been obtained from the CanESS model, which uses input data from Environment Canada, Statistics Canada, the National Energy Board and the Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board, as well as input from the GREET and GHG Genius models used to track GHG emissions. In addition, some data from an extensive study of emissions from oil sands production prepared for the government of Alberta have been used as a check on the CanESS model assumptions.
Low-Carbon Energy Futures: A Review of National Scenarios
The Trottier Energy Futures Project summarizes common themes in leading greenhouse gas reduction strategies for eight countries: Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, UK and USA.